Hacksaw's MVC Tournament Seeding Probability Report

by **shocks771** » February 11th, 2016, 11:42 pm

Now that we are down to the final five games it would be interesting to see Hacksaw's seeding report. It's going to likely be a jumbled mess between the 2-5 seeds. Anyone seen a recent report that they can share?

**Sponsor**

by **LanceShock** » February 12th, 2016, 7:56 am

He has been doing them and putting them in a thread on PantherNation:
http://www.panthernation.com/showthread ... 016&page=2
At this point, he has been doing simulations. I can't remember when he starts putting together the charts based on all possibilities.

by **BuBrave2006** » February 12th, 2016, 8:27 am

LanceShock wrote:He has been doing them and putting them in a thread on PantherNation:
http://www.panthernation.com/showthread ... 016&page=2
At this point, he has been doing simulations. I can't remember when he starts putting together the charts based on all possibilities.

I think that usually comes with 3 games left, when we are down to only 32,768 combinations left.

by **Hacksaw** » February 12th, 2016, 9:32 am

Hey all,
I just updated the simulation this morning. I'm hopeful to switch from the simulation to every probability after Sunday's games (with just a shade over 1 million possible outcomes).

by **BirdsEyeView** » February 12th, 2016, 9:47 am

Thank you! These are great.

by **shocks771** » February 12th, 2016, 10:29 am

Thanks Hacksaw!

by **DUBulldog** » February 12th, 2016, 10:47 am

Good stuff, Hacksaw. Thanks!

by **Redhawk** » February 12th, 2016, 10:54 am

It's interesting that only ISUr can beat the Shockers in simulated games too!

by **Hacksaw** » February 14th, 2016, 6:22 pm

With 20 games left, the simulation is retired and the spreadsheet with the full breakdown of possible finishes takes over:

wp/2016/02/14/2016-arch-madness-seeding-probabilities-february-14/

by **UE-grad** » February 14th, 2016, 7:07 pm

I think the tiebreaker was changed this year - now is "adjusted RPI."

Anyone confirm, and answer why? I would think the SOS would be a better incentive.

http://www.mvc-sports.com/mbasketball/tiebreaker/