Hacksaw's MVC Tournament Seeding Probability Report

[WSpringsBird]

Great stuff. Thanks for giving us a break from the lengthy discussions about which school's fans are the biggest jerks.

[PantherSigEp]

I think the tiebreaker was changed this year - now is "adjusted RPI."

Anyone confirm, and answer why? I would think the SOS would be a better incentive.

http://www.mvc-sports.com/mbasketball/tiebreaker/

I too am curious as to why this is the case. I'm very unhappy if the SOS incentive has disappeared completely...not that many schools took it very seriously in the first place

[Hacksaw]

I think the tiebreaker was changed this year - now is "adjusted RPI."

Anyone confirm, and answer why? I would think the SOS would be a better incentive.

http://www.mvc-sports.com/mbasketball/tiebreaker/

Interesting, I was unaware of this change as well, and I agree this seems to remove the stronger scheduling incentive. I'll get this update into the spreadsheet for the next run.

[Rollbird5]

I was banking on ISU's strength of schedule to win a tiebreaker but now if it's RPI then the tiebreakers will be really close as UE, ISU, UNI, and SIU are fairly close to each other

[PurpleAcesFootball]

I think the tiebreaker was changed this year - now is "adjusted RPI."

Anyone confirm, and answer why? I would think the SOS would be a better incentive.

http://www.mvc-sports.com/mbasketball/tiebreaker/

Interesting, I was unaware of this change as well, and I agree this seems to remove the stronger scheduling incentive. I'll get this update into the spreadsheet for the next run.

I don't know that I get this change either.

It was just 10 years ago that the conference realized how important RPI and SOS were for post season appearances.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/mvc/2006-03-03-tournament-hopes_x.htm

I admit I'm biased. I do not want UE rewarded at all for the crap non-conference schedule they threw out there this year.

Read that article I posted above. 6 MVC teams in the RPI Top 45? How we've fallen! No wonder Wichita wants to look for greener pastures. Can't say I blame them.

[E-Villan]

I agree, the non-con was garbage.

I might have a little more tolerance of it if Marty would have actually played his bench, and developed them during the SWAC Invitational. Burning out DJ with 39 minutes against Goober State is biting him in the arse now.

[MVCfans]

With 20 games left, the simulation is retired and the spreadsheet with the full breakdown of possible finishes takes over:

link: wp/2016/02/14/2016-arch-madness-seeding-probabilities-february-14/

A bug thanks for Hacksaw for again providing this to us to share.

[Hacksaw]

Using the RPI's from this morning's update of The RPI Report as the new final tiebreaker (instead of OOC SOS), the updated charts of possible outcomes are listed below. Note there is definitely potential for teams to shift their order in the RPI, which could affect seeding (especially 2-5, 7-8, and 9-10): WSU 52, UE 91, UNI 100, ISUr 107, SIU 125, ISUb 171, MSU 228, LUC 232, BU 300, DU 304.




And the seeding probabilities using weighted odds:

[BirdsEyeView]

How does Indy St. have a better chance at 6th than Missouri St?

The weighted probabilities show the following results if going just by percentages of wins in the last 4

Indy St -
@ISUr L
vs WSU L
@ UNI L
vs Bradley W

1-3 finish @ 8-10

Mo St. -
@WSU L
vs Loyola W
vs Drake W
@SIU L

2-2 finish @ 9-9

However, it shows their percentages to finish in 7th as Mo St. being higher...Can anybody explain that?

[BuBrave2006]

How does Indy St. have a better chance at 6th than Missouri St?

However, it shows their percentages to finish in 7th as Mo St. being higher...Can anybody explain that?

You can't look at it in terms of individual games. A 55% chance to win (Loy @ MSU) is much less significant than a 94% chance (BU @ ISUb), obviously. You need to look at it in terms of "Expected Wins" in a mathematical sense for the rest of the season. If you add up Indiana State's percentages for all four games, it adds up to 175% out of a possible 400%.

That means that Indiana State is expected to win 1.75 games out of their remaining four. Likewise, Missouri State's comes out to be 1.45 wins out of their last four. So in the long run, it is "expected" that Indiana state will finish this season with .3 more wins that MSU. Add in the fact that ISUb has the tiebreaker and that is why their percentage for 6th place is much higher.