Hacksaw's MVC Tournament Seeding Probability Report

[BirdsEyeView]

How does Indy St. have a better chance at 6th than Missouri St?

However, it shows their percentages to finish in 7th as Mo St. being higher...Can anybody explain that?

You can't look at it in terms of individual games. A 55% chance to win (Loy @ MSU) is much less significant than a 94% chance (BU @ ISUb), obviously. You need to look at it in terms of "Expected Wins" in a mathematical sense for the rest of the season. If you add up Indiana State's percentages for all four games, it adds up to 175% out of a possible 400%.

That means that Indiana State is expected to win 1.75 games out of their remaining four. Likewise, Missouri State's comes out to be 1.45 wins out of their last four. So in the long run, it is "expected" that Indiana state will finish this season with .3 more wins that MSU. Add in the fact that ISUb has the tiebreaker and that is why their percentage for 6th place is much higher.

Makes sense, thank you.

[LanceShock]

I think the tiebreaker was changed this year - now is "adjusted RPI."

Anyone confirm, and answer why? I would think the SOS would be a better incentive.

http://www.mvc-sports.com/mbasketball/tiebreaker/

Interesting, I was unaware of this change as well, and I agree this seems to remove the stronger scheduling incentive. I'll get this update into the spreadsheet for the next run.

I think certain teams need all the incentive to schedule tougher than can be given them. Evansville's nonconference is a classic example of nonconference schedule put together for pure Ws. I'll give Illinois State credit for putting together a tough nonconference schedule this year. It is too bad that it took so long for the team to come together because they did have the opportunities for some significant nonconference Ws.

Ideally, teams would put together as tough of a schedule as they can and still be competitive. Defeating cupcakes and losing to good teams don't help the Valley or teams looking for an at large.

[BirdsEyeView]

I think the tiebreaker was changed this year - now is "adjusted RPI."

Anyone confirm, and answer why? I would think the SOS would be a better incentive.

http://www.mvc-sports.com/mbasketball/tiebreaker/

Interesting, I was unaware of this change as well, and I agree this seems to remove the stronger scheduling incentive. I'll get this update into the spreadsheet for the next run.

I think certain teams need all the incentive to schedule tougher than can be given them. Evansville's nonconference is a classic example of nonconference schedule put together for pure Ws. I'll give Illinois State credit for putting together a tough nonconference schedule this year. It is too bad that it took so long for the team to come together because they did have the opportunities for some significant nonconference Ws.

Ideally, teams would put together as tough of a schedule as they can and still be competitive. Defeating cupcakes and losing to good teams don't help the Valley or teams looking for an at large.

[PantherSigEp]

I think the tiebreaker was changed this year - now is "adjusted RPI."

Anyone confirm, and answer why? I would think the SOS would be a better incentive.

http://www.mvc-sports.com/mbasketball/tiebreaker/

Interesting, I was unaware of this change as well, and I agree this seems to remove the stronger scheduling incentive. I'll get this update into the spreadsheet for the next run.

I think certain teams need all the incentive to schedule tougher than can be given them. Evansville's nonconference is a classic example of nonconference schedule put together for pure Ws. I'll give Illinois State credit for putting together a tough nonconference schedule this year. It is too bad that it took so long for the team to come together because they did have the opportunities for some significant nonconference Ws.

Ideally, teams would put together as tough of a schedule as they can and still be competitive. Defeating cupcakes and losing to good teams don't help the Valley or teams looking for an at large.

Evansville and SIU are the big culprits this year. Both of them have a non-con SOS in the 300's and they deserve to be bitten in the ass for it in the next few weeks. Wichita (19), ISUr (62) and UNI (23) did their part this year, and surprisingly enough so did Bradley (39). It's too bad 2 of those 4 teams have crapped their pants for portions of this season or else we could be looking at a very interesting race/bubble watch

And I only say 2 of 4 because 1 team should still be safe and a 1 has crapped their pants all season long...which was expected.

Also my ranks are from KenPom if someone was curious.

[MVCfans]

Just updated with the results of last night's MVC games. Thanks again to Hacksaw.

link to the The MVC Report - Arch Madness seeding probabilities

[BirdsEyeView]

Looks good! Hacksaw should be getting a stipend for his work on these.

[Hacksaw]

Looks good! Hacksaw should be getting a stipend for his work on these.

Haha, what a great suggestion! Seriously though, I love this stuff and would be doing it regardless of it being posted/shared, so if anybody on here enjoys it as well, it's totally worth it!

[CaliRdBrd]

Looks good! Hacksaw should be getting a stipend for his work on these.

Haha, what a great suggestion! Seriously though, I love this stuff and would be doing it regardless of it being posted/shared, so if anybody on here enjoys it as well, it's totally worth it!

You seem to be too smart and savvy not to be an Illinois State grad.

[ahunte1]

Looks good! Hacksaw should be getting a stipend for his work on these.

Seconded! Really enjoy seeing these.

[BuBrave2006]

You seem to be too smart and savvy not to be an Illinois State grad.

I don't understand or agree with this statement.