Hacksaw's MVC Tournament Seeding Probability Report

[Red]

We only have an 8% chance of beating Wichita State? I disagree. I think we are better than UNI and they just won at Koch plus we've got a winning streak against the almighty Shockers to keep intact.

[BirdsEyeView]

How are the weighted probabilities calculated for percentages to win upcoming games?

I agree that there are some odd percentages in some of the games...giving some teams too much credit and others far too little credit.

[Redbird Recon]

Geez. Stop whining. Thank you, Hacksaw. Great stuff.

ISU fans need to chill. Anything better than 1-2 to finish out would be a welcomed surprise.

[Redbirdgrad]

I'd agree with the 8% figure. Might even be a little generous. I think ISU has the best chance of any Valley team to walk out of there with a win on Senior Night but it's not going to happen.

Agreed Recon that 1-2 is very realistic with our last 3.

[Championz]

We only have an 8% chance of beating Wichita State? I disagree. I think we are better than UNI and they just won at Koch plus we've got a winning streak against the almighty Shockers to keep intact.

Man, you're getting extra ripe lately.

What do you think the chances are, genius?

[BirdsEyeView]

Geez. Stop whining. Thank you, Hacksaw. Great stuff.

ISU fans need to chill. Anything better than 1-2 to finish out would be a welcomed surprise.

I'm not whining, just curious how it's predicted.

[Stickboy46]

Geez. Stop whining. Thank you, Hacksaw. Great stuff.

ISU fans need to chill. Anything better than 1-2 to finish out would be a welcomed surprise.

I'm not whining, just curious how it's predicted.

He states that he uses Sagarin's predictor

[BirdsEyeView]

Geez. Stop whining. Thank you, Hacksaw. Great stuff.

ISU fans need to chill. Anything better than 1-2 to finish out would be a welcomed surprise.

I'm not whining, just curious how it's predicted.

He states that he uses Sagarin's predictor

Thanks.

[Hacksaw]

Getting down to the wire, update posted:
wp/2016/02/22/updated-arch-madness-seeding-probabilities-february-21/

[BirdsEyeView]

Looks good. I think out of all the years, this could be the year that the #7 seed beats the #2 seed.

The teams vying for the #6-#8 seed are Indy St., Loyola, and Missouri St.
The teams vying for the #2 seed is Evansville and Illinois State (SIU with outside chance)

As an ISUr fan, I am not comfortable playing Loyola and I don't believe Indy St. is actually as bad as they were last week in their two blowout loses.

I think it will finish with Indy St #6, Loyola #7 and MoSt. #8 (all finish 8-10 with RPIs coming into play).

UE vs Loyola (was a 1 point game last week)
ISUr vs Indy St (although 28 pt blowout last week, we lost to them by 12 at their place)

Still plenty of games left, but those types of matchups could lead to our first Thursday team making the semis.