One bid league?

[Championz]

Of course on the other hand, Lunardi is wrong too, on the other end. I don't see how you can push Wichita to the 7 line.

Well maybe he's just going by what the committee specifically told Andy Katz in December: That WSU will not be judged based on FVV's absence in Orlando. So those losses don't count against them in a "true" fashion. The rest of the resume is meh but still formidable. I think it is also realized that WSU's opportunity for resume building wins disappeared without FVV in Orlando. So you have a loss to Tulsa, which is 37 in the RPI, a loss to Seton Hall, which is 45 in the RPI, and the two Valley stinkers. I don't think anybody expects perfection. And WSU isn't. If WSU wins the Alabama and USC games, which were both winnable late, even without FVV, where does WSU then stand?

I think 7-10 at this point is perfectly valid, especially considering all the losses other teams above them have endured. Some of them are really, really, really bad losses, i.e. Maryland to Minnesota.

[Red]

So you have a loss to Tulsa, which is 37 in the RPI, a loss to Seton Hall, which is 45 in the RPI, and the two Valley stinkers

And which wins are the good ones? Utah and....

The losses without FVV can't be assumed wins with him considering what the Shockers did against similar competition as you noted. Maybe they go 1-2 in those three with FVV and then are you completely off the bubble? Maybe his missing time will actually work to your advantage.

[Championz]

So you have a loss to Tulsa, which is 37 in the RPI, a loss to Seton Hall, which is 45 in the RPI, and the two Valley stinkers

And which wins are the good ones? Utah and....

The losses without FVV can't be assumed wins with him considering what the Shockers did against similar competition as you noted. Maybe they go 1-2 in those three with FVV and then are you completely off the bubble? Maybe his missing time will actually work to your advantage.

I'm not saying you assume those as wins. I'm saying those were WSU's most important opportunities that came with a depleted roster. The USC and Alabama games were one possession games with under 30 seconds left. You could make a reasonable assumption that FVV could have been a likely difference-maker in those games.

Look, I'm just going by what the committee told Katz in December. I didn't make this stuff up or force them to say what they said. You can interpret it however you want to. But if they said it and plan on sticking to it, then I would imagine WSU's chances of an at-large increase dramatically. And I'm guessing Lunardi is factoring that mention in his scenario as well, hence the #7 seed.

[Stickboy46]

So you have a loss to Tulsa, which is 37 in the RPI, a loss to Seton Hall, which is 45 in the RPI, and the two Valley stinkers

And which wins are the good ones? Utah and....

The losses without FVV can't be assumed wins with him considering what the Shockers did against similar competition as you noted. Maybe they go 1-2 in those three with FVV and then are you completely off the bubble? Maybe his missing time will actually work to your advantage.

It all depends on what you look at. If you just look at RPI based items like Top 50 wins etc, then yea the resume isnt great. Even though WSUs RPI is improving. Doing that though you are choosing to use 1 metric to make your case and ignore the other 5 or so metrics that say they should be in. The mock selection showed they use about 6 different metrics including KenPom as one of the highest. WSU is 10 in that ranking and 20-25 in the rest. All of those put WSU safely in.

I'm not saying they won't leave WSU out, it's very possible. If they do though it's not because WSU doesn't have the resume, it's because they chose to ignore 75% of the resume in order to get another power 5 team in.

[TheAsianSensation]

Wichita's resume if you remove the 3 FVV-less games. Note I did rough calculations so it's probably not perfect. But here are the numbers if you remove the 3 games (and remember, also remove those games from an SoS standpoint!)

Wichita St (20-4) (14-2) RPI 49 SoS 126
Vital signs: 8-3 road/neutral record, non-con SoS 54, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 3-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Utah, swept Evansville? UNLV or Nevada?
Bad losses: @Illinois St and UNI aren't great

The concern is all the other bubble teams should be able to bring a signature win like Utah and will probably carry more depth in that category. The boon is that almost no one is bringing that road-neutral record to the table, plus the SoS is good enough.

The double edged sword about throwing away those 3 games is that you're taking your non-con SoS (which is up to #2 in the country, by the way) and knocking it down 50 spots.

[TheAsianSensation]

Also, these numbers are only of interest to me, really, but for entertainment purposes:

Non-con SoS:
Wichita St 2
Illinois St 7
UNI 30
Bradley 60
Indiana St 95
---
Missouri St 220
Evansville 263
Drake 293
Loyola 304
SIU 306

[BCPanther]

UNI should have been even higher, can't believe Richmond has fallen apart. Though they're probably saying the same thing about UNI.

[Red]

Honest question- I've seen and heard many pundits say that WSU shouldn't be downgraded because of losses that occurred when FVV was out. I'm okay with that notion. But then shouldn't the opponent be downgraded because they won against an undermanned team? Alabama essentially gets credit for beating a full strength Shox team even though it wasn't. Using this fuzzy math, playing a game against a team with an injured player actually helps both teams and hurts neither.

[Stickboy46]

Honest question- I've seen and heard many pundits say that WSU shouldn't be downgraded because of losses that occurred when FVV was out. I'm okay with that notion. But then shouldn't the opponent be downgraded because they won against an undermanned team? Alabama essentially gets credit for beating a full strength Shox team even though it wasn't. Using this fuzzy math, playing a game against a team with an injured player actually helps both teams and hurts neither.

I've noticed that and I agree. I've seen bubble watches that mentioned Tulsa, USC and Alabama all with "quality wins" over WSU, then you get to the WSU section, and it mentions that they will take into account FVV (and others) being out for those games.

[Rambler63]

Honest question- I've seen and heard many pundits say that WSU shouldn't be downgraded because of losses that occurred when FVV was out. I'm okay with that notion. But then shouldn't the opponent be downgraded because they won against an undermanned team? Alabama essentially gets credit for beating a full strength Shox team even though it wasn't. Using this fuzzy math, playing a game against a team with an injured player actually helps both teams and hurts neither.

ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) tries to take injuries into account, weighting game results and efficiencies by whether top players are injured or whether opponents are playing with injuries. WSU is at #22 in the BPI.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi