Hacksaw's MVC Tournament Seeding Probability Report

[BradleyBrave]

Looks good. I think out of all the years, this could be the year that the #7 seed beats the #2 seed.

The teams vying for the #6-#8 seed are Indy St., Loyola, and Missouri St.
The teams vying for the #2 seed is Evansville and Illinois State (SIU with outside chance)

As an ISUr fan, I am not comfortable playing Loyola and I don't believe Indy St. is actually as bad as they were last week in their two blowout loses.

I think it will finish with Indy St #6, Loyola #7 and MoSt. #8 (all finish 8-10 with RPIs coming into play).

UE vs Loyola (was a 1 point game last week)
ISUr vs Indy St (although 28 pt blowout last week, we lost to them by 12 at their place)

Still plenty of games left, but those types of matchups could lead to our first Thursday team making the semis.

Bradley made the semis from the play-in round in the late 90's. Only school to do so. Play-in was Friday then though...so I guess technically a Thursday team has never made it that far.

[MVCfans]

Final probabilities reports just posted. Thanks again to Hacksaw.

link to the The MVC Report - Final seeding probabilities

[BirdsEyeView]

Final probabilities reports just posted. Thanks again to Hacksaw.

link to the The MVC Report - Final seeding probabilities

So, the #1 seed is locked up
The 4/5 matchup is set
The 9 and 10 seeds are done
The 2 and 3 can swap, but very doubtful given ISUr is @ Shox

Not much drama except for the 6, 7, 8 seeds

As an ISUr fan, expecting to be the #3 seed, I want to play Missouri St and avenge that ridiculous giveaway game on the road where we were up 6 points in the final minute AND shooting technical FTs. Then lost in OT.

[Ali]

I've always thought the best time to get an upset over a #1 or #2 seeds was in the semis and not in the finals. Maybe catch them looking ahead. Hopefully UNI gets that chance and draws WSU next Friday.

[BirdsEyeView]

I've always thought the best time to get an upset over a #1 or #2 seeds was in the semis and not in the finals. Maybe catch them looking ahead. Hopefully UNI gets that chance and draws WSU next Friday.

Next Saturday.

Side note - ISUr is a top 100 RPI right now, so that will help WSU if you win on Saturday for the old resume.

[Championz]

I've always thought the best time to get an upset over a #1 or #2 seeds was in the semis and not in the finals. Maybe catch them looking ahead. Hopefully UNI gets that chance and draws WSU next Friday.

Normally I'd agree. But if WSU gets UNI, I think they're gonna remember what they did to them a couple weeks ago. They might be a little sour about it and have a chip on their shoulder.

[MVCfans]

Here are your #ArchMadness seeds:
1) Wichita St
2) Evansville
3) Illinois St
4) UNI
5) SIU
6) Indiana St
7) MSU
8) Loyola
9) Bradley
10) Drake