Wichita State - in or out?

[ShockValue]

Obviously I hope we make it but I don't think I could honestly bitch for one second if we don't. After how high the preseason expectations were to where we actually finished this year has been an enormous disappointment.

[MSUDuo]

In

Pom ranking of 11 and BPI of 24

You were missing FVV for 3 games, which could have easily gone the other way and if those are there, it would be a no brainer.

[ilstubirds250]

I'm making a superfecta type guess here. I am predicting the Shockers will play Iowa, Dayton, Purdue or California and win by 25-30 points. Then they will play stiffer competition next and win by 5.

Yeah, I'm sure they will beat Iowa, who beat them by 23 this season, by 30 points.

[BirdsEyeView]

Bid stealer...Monmouth is now battling Wichita for at large spot.

[TheAsianSensation]

Wichita really needed all the mid-majors to hold serve so they didn't have to compete with similar resumes.

Monmouth to the at-large board. Valpo too maybe (although I think Valpo is safely behind Wichita, but with these things, better safe then sorry)

[TheAsianSensation]

Wichita St vs. Monmouth. Tale of the tape.

Wichita St (24-8) (16-2) RPI 48 SoS 105
Vital signs: 10-7 R/N, non-con SoS 11, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Utah, @UNI, UEx2
Bad losses: @Illinois St is the worst, which isn't exactly all that horrible

Monmouth (27-7) (17-3) RPI 47 SoS 176
Vital signs: 17-5 R/N, non-con SoS 93, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Notre Dame and USC, @UCLA, @Iona
Bad losses: Army, Canisius, Manhattan, all roadies

Wichita has the SoS checkmark, although Monmouth isn't a disaster here. Both scheduled the same MTT OOC.

Wichita probably has the best win, depending about how you feel about how tough neutral site games are compared to home games. Monmouth has a better depth of wins. Monmouth has 4 Top 100 wins but 7 Top 105 wins. Wichita has 7 Top 125 wins to match Monmouth's 7. Basically, what I'm saying is to be careful when using cutoff points when comparing wins. The difference? Wichita has 5 home wins and 2 road wins in their 7, but Monmouth has 4 road wins and 2 neutrals in their 7.

Road/neutral record: Look at Monmouth! 22 games! 17 is a ridiculous number. Now, we see the horrible losses on the road. My counter: you realize how tough it is on the road, right? Are you saying Monmouth needs to go 20-2 in road/neutral games in order to not get criticized? If you gave any team in the country, ANY team, 22 road/neutral games, I'd guarantee there's be at least 2 ugly losses in there. Not maybe as ugly as sub-200 RPI, but still.

Boy, it's close. But I think the committee in the past has been aggressive about rewarding road schedules. Bottom line: not good for Wichita to have to go against this resume. The more teams on the bubble with few signature wins and strong schedules are bad for Wichita, because that's their strengths. Wichita needs to be dealing with power conference teams with ugly records, not this one.

[musiccitybulldog]

I'm making a superfecta type guess here. I am predicting the Shockers will play Iowa, Dayton, Purdue or California and win by 25-30 points. Then they will play stiffer competition next and win by 5.

Yeah, I'm sure they will beat Iowa, who beat them by 23 this season, by 30 points.

I may have been a tad bit high on that one. The Bulldogs played the Hawkeyes to 6!

[tribecalledquest]

Wichita St vs. Monmouth. Tale of the tape.

Wichita St (24-8) (16-2) RPI 48 SoS 105
Vital signs: 10-7 R/N, non-con SoS 11, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Utah, @UNI, UEx2
Bad losses: @Illinois St is the worst, which isn't exactly all that horrible

Monmouth (27-7) (17-3) RPI 47 SoS 176
Vital signs: 17-5 R/N, non-con SoS 93, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Notre Dame and USC, @UCLA, @Iona
Bad losses: Army, Canisius, Manhattan, all roadies

Wichita has the SoS checkmark, although Monmouth isn't a disaster here. Both scheduled the same MTT OOC.

Wichita probably has the best win, depending about how you feel about how tough neutral site games are compared to home games. Monmouth has a better depth of wins. Monmouth has 4 Top 100 wins but 7 Top 105 wins. Wichita has 7 Top 125 wins to match Monmouth's 7. Basically, what I'm saying is to be careful when using cutoff points when comparing wins. The difference? Wichita has 5 home wins and 2 road wins in their 7, but Monmouth has 4 road wins and 2 neutrals in their 7.

Road/neutral record: Look at Monmouth! 22 games! 17 is a ridiculous number. Now, we see the horrible losses on the road. My counter: you realize how tough it is on the road, right? Are you saying Monmouth needs to go 20-2 in road/neutral games in order to not get criticized? If you gave any team in the country, ANY team, 22 road/neutral games, I'd guarantee there's be at least 2 ugly losses in there. Not maybe as ugly as sub-200 RPI, but still.

Boy, it's close. But I think the committee in the past has been aggressive about rewarding road schedules. Bottom line: not good for Wichita to have to go against this resume. The more teams on the bubble with few signature wins and strong schedules are bad for Wichita, because that's their strengths. Wichita needs to be dealing with power conference teams with ugly records, not this one.

The committee should put weight in the fact that three of WSU's neutral site losses came without Fred Van Vleet. Iowa, USC and Alabama.

[Stickboy46]

Wichita St vs. Monmouth. Tale of the tape.

Wichita St (24-8) (16-2) RPI 48 SoS 105
Vital signs: 10-7 R/N, non-con SoS 11, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Utah, @UNI, UEx2
Bad losses: @Illinois St is the worst, which isn't exactly all that horrible

Monmouth (27-7) (17-3) RPI 47 SoS 176
Vital signs: 17-5 R/N, non-con SoS 93, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Notre Dame and USC, @UCLA, @Iona
Bad losses: Army, Canisius, Manhattan, all roadies

Wichita has the SoS checkmark, although Monmouth isn't a disaster here. Both scheduled the same MTT OOC.

Wichita probably has the best win, depending about how you feel about how tough neutral site games are compared to home games. Monmouth has a better depth of wins. Monmouth has 4 Top 100 wins but 7 Top 105 wins. Wichita has 7 Top 125 wins to match Monmouth's 7. Basically, what I'm saying is to be careful when using cutoff points when comparing wins. The difference? Wichita has 5 home wins and 2 road wins in their 7, but Monmouth has 4 road wins and 2 neutrals in their 7.

Road/neutral record: Look at Monmouth! 22 games! 17 is a ridiculous number. Now, we see the horrible losses on the road. My counter: you realize how tough it is on the road, right? Are you saying Monmouth needs to go 20-2 in road/neutral games in order to not get criticized? If you gave any team in the country, ANY team, 22 road/neutral games, I'd guarantee there's be at least 2 ugly losses in there. Not maybe as ugly as sub-200 RPI, but still.

Boy, it's close. But I think the committee in the past has been aggressive about rewarding road schedules. Bottom line: not good for Wichita to have to go against this resume. The more teams on the bubble with few signature wins and strong schedules are bad for Wichita, because that's their strengths. Wichita needs to be dealing with power conference teams with ugly records, not this one.

Don't forget items like KenPom, Sagarin, BPI all have WSU WAY higher. Those do matter. That combined with the 3 horrible losses for Monmouth puts WSU well above them

[TheAsianSensation]

It's really tough to figure out how much value the committee will put into advanced metrics. I think it's safe enough to say that an outlier like Wichita is really going to be bolstered by them, but it may be more in the form of getting the at-large bid instead of in seeding. There's really no track record for this situation though, so who the heck knows.

I know those bad losses are there, but....22 road/neutral games! 22! People who want to dock them bigtime for those losses don't realize they're asking Monmouth to be a 20-2 road/neutral team in order to be good enough. 20-2!

One important thing to note about the talking heads: don't listen to them talk about bad losses and Wichita. Wichita has no bad losses. Sure, @ISU and home to UNI isn't great, but most bubble teams will have comparable losses to those. Don't worry about the talking heads, the selection committee knows better.