Wichita State - in or out?

[ShoxINDST]

I wish Monmouth would've won there champ game last night. They have been in talks about an at large te. It would of set Wichita sitting even better

[GrandpaBear]

The committee won't assume WSU would have won those games when he was out. And the only metric helping WSU is Ken Pom and the fact that they are nearly in the Top 10 of that ranking sort of negates how valid it really is.

No. In fact, looking at the top 11 right now, in order:

Virginia, Kansas, MSU, Nova, UNC, WVU, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Indiana, L'ville, Wichita

then: Miami, Arizona, Xavier, Oregon, Purdue, Iowa, Iowa St, SMU, Duke

Among the top 20, that's essentially the top 5 seed lines, plus 2 ineligible teams and Wichita. Wichita being the only outlier is actually a big strength for Wichita, because every other team ranked high makes sense. If we had a stray St Mary's or Texas Tech or a team like that in the top 20, that would be a problem for Wichita. Being the only outlier is huge for them.

The point being that I don't think you can find anyone anywhere who actually thinks WSU is the 11th best team. Their resume doesn't support it at all. Is this example, RPI is much better.

[Stickboy46]

The committee won't assume WSU would have won those games when he was out. And the only metric helping WSU is Ken Pom and the fact that they are nearly in the Top 10 of that ranking sort of negates how valid it really is.

You are incorrect there
KenPom: 11
BPI: 25
Sagarin: 24
NPI: 17
KPI: 36

RPI: 47

The statistical outlier ... RPI, not Ken Pom. Realistically they are probably more in the 25-30 range ... no where near the bubble.

[Stickboy46]

The committee won't assume WSU would have won those games when he was out. And the only metric helping WSU is Ken Pom and the fact that they are nearly in the Top 10 of that ranking sort of negates how valid it really is.

No. In fact, looking at the top 11 right now, in order:

Virginia, Kansas, MSU, Nova, UNC, WVU, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Indiana, L'ville, Wichita

then: Miami, Arizona, Xavier, Oregon, Purdue, Iowa, Iowa St, SMU, Duke

Among the top 20, that's essentially the top 5 seed lines, plus 2 ineligible teams and Wichita. Wichita being the only outlier is actually a big strength for Wichita, because every other team ranked high makes sense. If we had a stray St Mary's or Texas Tech or a team like that in the top 20, that would be a problem for Wichita. Being the only outlier is huge for them.

The point being that I don't think you can find anyone anywhere who actually thinks WSU is the 11th best team. Their resume doesn't support it at all. Is this example, RPI is much better.

Why is RPI much better? Because you say so? You can't use Top 25-50 wins to justify RPI either .. because those are based on RPI. As I said in my last post, WSU is closer to 25 than it is to 50.

[TheAsianSensation]

Counterpoint: both the RPI and Kenpom are outliers.

Kenpom, for my money, is the best single metric out there today. However, even saying that....it's awfully dangerous to put so much on the metrics of a single guy.

[Stickboy46]

Counterpoint: both the RPI and Kenpom are outliers.

Kenpom, for my money, is the best single metric out there today. However, even saying that....it's awfully dangerous to put so much on the metrics of a single guy.

I can agree with them both being outliers. So its somewhere in the middle ... IE 25-30 .. no where near the bubble.

[tribecalledquest]

The committee won't assume WSU would have won those games when he was out. And the only metric helping WSU is Ken Pom and the fact that they are nearly in the Top 10 of that ranking sort of negates how valid it really is.

No. They won't assume WSU would have won those games. But they also do consider that they lost three close games without the league player of the Year. It matters.

[cpacmel]

We're not going to have a team in the NIT this year.

I bet we do.

[TheAsianSensation]

We're not going to have a team in the NIT this year.

I bet we do.

Evansville isn't making it. The MVC is down this year and 2nd place in the conference means less than usual. It would require a selection committee that is very incompetent and not paying attention to give a bid to Eva--

wait a second

Hey maybe there's a chance after all

[Redbirdgrad]

The committee won't assume WSU would have won those games when he was out. And the only metric helping WSU is Ken Pom and the fact that they are nearly in the Top 10 of that ranking sort of negates how valid it really is.

No. They won't assume WSU would have won those games. But they also do consider that they lost three close games without the league player of the Year. It matters.

The problem with this line of thinking is they'll look for a team that Wichita played that's similar to those while fully healthy. The only one they'll see in our conference is... Northern Iowa. The 1-2 record doesn't help there.

If I'm on the committee I'm looking for similar teams they've played to compare to. Since the Valley was down, they have few options here.