Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

[Cdizzle]

There were WAY more unknowns going into 2012-2013 than there are this year. It will definitely be a change though.

[WSpringsBird]

In terms of proven talent 4th place is UNIs. 11 of 16 kids on the roster are new/never played in a D1 game.

The thing is, UNI has quite possibly the best X/O coach in the league.

MSU and ILSU, OTOH have 2 of the 4 worst coaches in the league....and that's saying something given the bottom of the barrel coaches in this league in places.

ISU may have the physical talent but they have the coaching talent, basketball IQ and emotional control of most junior high teams.

I would agree that Jacobson is a very good X/O coach--on offense, in particular. Muller's teams generally play very good defense. They do a nice job of pressuring the ball and are generally in the right position off the ball. I think that reflects Muller's strengths as a player--he was a much better defender than an offensive player. To move away from impressions to stats, ILSU was second in the MVC in defensive efficiency last year. Of course, WSU was first in the entire nation.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... efficiency

[WSpringsBird]

In terms of proven talent 4th place is UNIs. 11 of 16 kids on the roster are new/never played in a D1 game.

The thing is, UNI has quite possibly the best X/O coach in the league.

MSU and ILSU, OTOH have 2 of the 4 worst coaches in the league....and that's saying something given the bottom of the barrel coaches in this league in places.

ISU may have the physical talent but they have the coaching talent, basketball IQ and emotional control of most junior high teams.

I would agree that Jacobson is a very good X/O coach--on offense, in particular. Muller's teams generally play very good defense. They do a nice job of pressuring the ball and are generally in the right position off the ball. I think that reflects Muller's strengths as a player--he was a much better defender than an offensive player. To move away from impressions to stats, ILSU was second in the MVC in defensive efficiency last year. Of course, WSU was first in the entire nation.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... efficiency

Correction: Evansville was second, which surprises me, though I only saw them play a few times last year.

[Cdizzle]

I get your points for sure, but there is an uncertainty for you unlike many other years. You lost Armstead, but FVV emerged in the NCAA tournament for you. Nobody has emerged behind those two guys unlike in years past at what I believe is the most important positions, ball handling guards.

I am not really on the Frankamp train, but he has more experience and numbers generally on par or better than FVV did at that time. During his freshman season most of us saw FVV as a potential star. Many people saw Baker as a potential star during his redshirt year. I do not see Frankamp as a potential star. I do see Shamet that way, as well as McDuffie.

And, in my opinion, you give Morris too much credit. I am much more confident in Shamet (whom I've seen play 3 games) than I am in Shaq. I would say Morris is more of a gamble with regard to winning the league than Shamet.

[BirdsEyeView]

And, in my opinion, you give Morris too much credit. I am much more confident in Shamet (whom I've seen play 3 games) than I am in Shaq. I would say Morris is more of a gamble with regard to winning the league than Shamet.

What 3 games? Canada?

[uniftw]

In terms of proven talent 4th place is UNIs. 11 of 16 kids on the roster are new/never played in a D1 game.

The thing is, UNI has quite possibly the best X/O coach in the league.

MSU and ILSU, OTOH have 2 of the 4 worst coaches in the league....and that's saying something given the bottom of the barrel coaches in this league in places.

ISU may have the physical talent but they have the coaching talent, basketball IQ and emotional control of most junior high teams.

I would agree that Jacobson is a very good X/O coach--on offense, in particular. Muller's teams generally play very good defense. They do a nice job of pressuring the ball and are generally in the right position off the ball. I think that reflects Muller's strengths as a player--he was a much better defender than an offensive player. To move away from impressions to stats, ILSU was second in the MVC in defensive efficiency last year. Of course, WSU was first in the entire nation.

Go back to the year before and UNI was top 20 in that stat.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... efficiency

UNI is widely regarded as a defensive team with a "meh" offense. You might be the first person to ever call Jake a better offensive than defensive coach.

I'm not going to pretend to know how those things work, but I can promise you that there wasn't 77 teams better at defense than UNI last year.....or any year.

Looking at the categories it's pretty clear to see there are a few things that hurt UNI's overall rank.

1. Blocks
-UNI doesn't worry about blocking shots. Ranked 261st in the country in that category. It's more about playing good defense a head of the shot and forcing a ill advised shot and boxing out. Not fouling the shooter, which going for the block tends to do.

2. Steals
-UNI plays as good as team defense as anyone in the nation. It's not about overplaying passing lanes are trying to reach for a steal. UNI ranked 196th in steals.

Want further proof those categories hurt UNI in that metric put made UNI a better defensive team than those who rank above them?

UNI ranked 10th in the nation in fewest fouls per game with 15. By not going to blocks, by not reaching, by playing better positional team defense it keeps foul totals low. It keeps players on the court. It keeps the other team off the free throw line.

About that free throw thing. UNI opponents show the second fewest free throws in the nation last season - 13 per game. Made the second fewest free throws per game in the nation last year - 9.

Conversely ILSU was in the total 30-40% of the nation in blocks per game, steals per game and total turnovers forced per game. HOWEVER, averaged 20 fouls per game last season - 200th in the nation. That means more foul trouble for star players. Less time on the floor for them. It also means ISUr gave up 8 more free throws per game than UNI did. It means ISUR gave up 5 more points per game than UNI did through free throws.


Jake is probably a better offensive coach than Muller in that he knows his players limitations and gets them to play within a system to put them in the best situation to make plays and shots when they need to be made compared to letting the offense "free style" and letting players get one and one and try cross over jumpers and forcing a drive to the basket. That can be seen looking at kenpoms adjusted tempo stats. UNI was 346th out of 351 teams in possessions per game - 64.2 possessions. UNI averaged 69 points per game. Illinois State averaged 4 more possession, so essentially (realistically) 12 more possible points per game and averaged 67 points per game.

On that same note, I would argue that also makes Jake a better defensive coach. How many times after a UNI game did we hear the same excuses "We just played poorly", "We missed open shots", "This guy didn't get what he normally gets and if he gets that...", etc... That is entirely by scheme created by Jake. Go read the meltdown following UNI beating WSU in the semis in March. The excuses were flowing like crazy - "We shot so poorly and if our guys hit the open shots we win going away!!!!". Yeah, there is a reason Jake left those guys open. There is a reason Jake rotated the guys like he did. There's a reason Jake played the match ups like he did.


Outside of Wes Washpun and Jeremy Morgan all we ever hear about UNI is "A bunch of slow white farm kids" yet the team is always at the top of the conference when it comes to defense. It's not because Lucas O'Rear or Johnny Moran were stud athletes that were match up night mares. It's not because Marvin Singleton was a Tekele Cotton athlete even though they were built similarly. It's because the scheme allowed them to be where they needed to be.


What's funny is kenpom has UNI significantly a head of Illinois State in adjusted defense for last season. Pom looks at points per 100 possessions - UNI was 17 spots a head of ISU.



TL;DR

Stats, especially "advanced stats" are real easy to manipulate to prove your point. Poll the 8 other coaches in the league who is the better defensive coach - Muller or Jake - and I'd bet at least 7 go with Jake.

[Cdizzle]

And, in my opinion, you give Morris too much credit. I am much more confident in Shamet (whom I've seen play 3 games) than I am in Shaq. I would say Morris is more of a gamble with regard to winning the league than Shamet.

What 3 games? Canada?

He played 3 games last year before going down to the injury. I have seen him play additional times, but those are the only 'real' games I've seen him in. Keep in mind that though a freshman, he's now a redshirt freshman with 2 full summers of training, several months of participated practice, and several months of watching practice on the sideline.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... dry-shamet

[Cdizzle]

In terms of proven talent 4th place is UNIs. 11 of 16 kids on the roster are new/never played in a D1 game.

The thing is, UNI has quite possibly the best X/O coach in the league.

MSU and ILSU, OTOH have 2 of the 4 worst coaches in the league....and that's saying something given the bottom of the barrel coaches in this league in places.

ISU may have the physical talent but they have the coaching talent, basketball IQ and emotional control of most junior high teams.

I would agree that Jacobson is a very good X/O coach--on offense, in particular. Muller's teams generally play very good defense. They do a nice job of pressuring the ball and are generally in the right position off the ball. I think that reflects Muller's strengths as a player--he was a much better defender than an offensive player. To move away from impressions to stats, ILSU was second in the MVC in defensive efficiency last year. Of course, WSU was first in the entire nation.

Go back to the year before and UNI was top 20 in that stat.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... efficiency

UNI is widely regarded as a defensive team with a "meh" offense. You might be the first person to ever call Jake a better offensive than defensive coach.

Agreed. Now, I also think Jacobsen is a better offensive coach than Muller. But the modified pack-line defense has been their staple for years. The names change, but the defense pretty much stays the same, both in style and effectiveness.

And, while UNI does play good (sometimes great) defense which leads to many teams bemoaning their shooting performance (as a WSU fan, I definitely get where you're coming from), I think it would be fair to characterize shooting 2-24 (8%) from 3 as a bit of an anomaly, even for what turned out to be a very poor shooting team.

[WSpringsBird]

In terms of proven talent 4th place is UNIs. 11 of 16 kids on the roster are new/never played in a D1 game.

The thing is, UNI has quite possibly the best X/O coach in the league.

MSU and ILSU, OTOH have 2 of the 4 worst coaches in the league....and that's saying something given the bottom of the barrel coaches in this league in places.

ISU may have the physical talent but they have the coaching talent, basketball IQ and emotional control of most junior high teams.

I would agree that Jacobson is a very good X/O coach--on offense, in particular. Muller's teams generally play very good defense. They do a nice job of pressuring the ball and are generally in the right position off the ball. I think that reflects Muller's strengths as a player--he was a much better defender than an offensive player. To move away from impressions to stats, ILSU was second in the MVC in defensive efficiency last year. Of course, WSU was first in the entire nation.

Go back to the year before and UNI was top 20 in that stat.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... efficiency

UNI is widely regarded as a defensive team with a "meh" offense. You might be the first person to ever call Jake a better offensive than defensive coach.

I'm not going to pretend to know how those things work, but I can promise you that there wasn't 77 teams better at defense than UNI last year.....or any year.

Looking at the categories it's pretty clear to see there are a few things that hurt UNI's overall rank.

1. Blocks
-UNI doesn't worry about blocking shots. Ranked 261st in the country in that category. It's more about playing good defense a head of the shot and forcing a ill advised shot and boxing out. Not fouling the shooter, which going for the block tends to do.

2. Steals
-UNI plays as good as team defense as anyone in the nation. It's not about overplaying passing lanes are trying to reach for a steal. UNI ranked 196th in steals.

Want further proof those categories hurt UNI in that metric put made UNI a better defensive team than those who rank above them?

UNI ranked 10th in the nation in fewest fouls per game with 15. By not going to blocks, by not reaching, by playing better positional team defense it keeps foul totals low. It keeps players on the court. It keeps the other team off the free throw line.

About that free throw thing. UNI opponents show the second fewest free throws in the nation last season - 13 per game. Made the second fewest free throws per game in the nation last year - 9.

Conversely ILSU was in the total 30-40% of the nation in blocks per game, steals per game and total turnovers forced per game. HOWEVER, averaged 20 fouls per game last season - 200th in the nation. That means more foul trouble for star players. Less time on the floor for them. It also means ISUr gave up 8 more free throws per game than UNI did. It means ISUR gave up 5 more points per game than UNI did through free throws.


Jake is probably a better offensive coach than Muller in that he knows his players limitations and gets them to play within a system to put them in the best situation to make plays and shots when they need to be made compared to letting the offense "free style" and letting players get one and one and try cross over jumpers and forcing a drive to the basket. That can be seen looking at kenpoms adjusted tempo stats. UNI was 346th out of 351 teams in possessions per game - 64.2 possessions. UNI averaged 69 points per game. Illinois State averaged 4 more possession, so essentially (realistically) 12 more possible points per game and averaged 67 points per game.

On that same note, I would argue that also makes Jake a better defensive coach. How many times after a UNI game did we hear the same excuses "We just played poorly", "We missed open shots", "This guy didn't get what he normally gets and if he gets that...", etc... That is entirely by scheme created by Jake. Go read the meltdown following UNI beating WSU in the semis in March. The excuses were flowing like crazy - "We shot so poorly and if our guys hit the open shots we win going away!!!!". Yeah, there is a reason Jake left those guys open. There is a reason Jake rotated the guys like he did. There's a reason Jake played the match ups like he did.


Outside of Wes Washpun and Jeremy Morgan all we ever hear about UNI is "A bunch of slow white farm kids" yet the team is always at the top of the conference when it comes to defense. It's not because Lucas O'Rear or Johnny Moran were stud athletes that were match up night mares. It's not because Marvin Singleton was a Tekele Cotton athlete even though they were built similarly. It's because the scheme allowed them to be where they needed to be.


What's funny is kenpom has UNI significantly a head of Illinois State in adjusted defense for last season. Pom looks at points per 100 possessions - UNI was 17 spots a head of ISU.



TL;DR

Stats, especially "advanced stats" are real easy to manipulate to prove your point. Poll the 8 other coaches in the league who is the better defensive coach - Muller or Jake - and I'd bet at least 7 go with Jake.

Just to be clear, I did not mean any of that as a knock on Jacobson. Like you, I think he's really good at understanding his players' positive attributes and limitations, and managing them accordingly. On offense, I've always liked how Northern Iowa spaces things out and moves the ball, waiting patiently for a good shot.

I don't believe it's fair to say I manipulated the advanced stats. I didn't slice and dice anything; I merely reported the headline ranking. Northern Iowa is always a very good defensive team, but they also tend to allow low points per game because they are very deliberate with their offensive possessions--which I think is a good thing--and slow the pace of the game. Nothing wrong with any of that, but I also think it's worthwhile to look at a measure of defensive output that controls for that, at least to some extent.

[uniftw]

Agreed. Now, I also think Jacobsen is a better offensive coach than Muller. But the modified pack-line defense has been their staple for years. The names change, but the defense pretty much stays the same, both in style and effectiveness.

And, while UNI does play good (sometimes great) defense which leads to many teams bemoaning their shooting performance (as a WSU fan, I definitely get where you're coming from), I think it would be fair to characterize shooting 2-24 (8%) from 3 as a bit of an anomaly, even for what turned out to be a very poor shooting team.

I'd say the game plan worked better than hoped for sure, but Jake knew exactly what he was doing. He knows WSU has St. Louis. He knows the players carry the attitude of Gregg. He knows how quickly things can/do head south for WSU in St Louis when a bump happens. He forced the bump. He forced jump shooters to take long jump shots during their second game in 24 hours. He gambled that if a couple rimmed out frustration would grow and things would snow ball a bit. Well, they avalanched better than he probably planned, but that's what Jake's defense does.

Education jokes about UNI aside I'm not sure I can count how many times over the last decade we've heard the same "It was clearly just an off shooting night" or "We just played poorly" excuse after a loss to UNI. I bet it's close to 85% of the time. It's because UNI plays "ugly". They force you into making the mistake, they don't force the mistake. It's a very subtle difference that leads to the "We just played bad. UNI isn't that good" thing we hear all of the time.

At this point even you say that UNI plays "good (sometimes great) defense". The reality is, after a decade the UNI defense is known as the UNI defense and just seen as status quo for UNI. I love that quote. At this point UNI plays better defense than anyone in the conference - sans WSU - night in and night out and it still isn't "respected" like WSU's. That's perfectly fine. You said it best - names change but nothing else does. It's a machine and the names on the back of the jersey's (as much as we may grow to the love the person in that jersey) don't matter.

It's why I don't buy into the "advanced metrics" showing Muller is a better defensive coach than Jake. Simply put, it's not true. Jake's scheme is the anti-advanced metrics - offense and defense. I've already pointed out exactly how UNI's defensive ranking is hurt in the link provided by that other poster. Steals and blocks were heavily factored into that. UNI focuses on position defense and forcing contested late clock jumpers. Steals and blocks are great when they happen, but aren't the primary goal.


It's why I pointed out another "advanced metric" that had UNI 20 spots a head of Illinois State. It's pretty easy to find an advanced metric that takes your side of the argument given the dozens of stat sites and different ratings there are out there right now.


Side note...but Jake has been in the conference longer than any other coach and is top 5-10 all time in total wins and conference wins, can we (as a board) start spelling his name correctly? Not aimed directly at you, as I'd guess 70% of non-UNI fans don't get it right. I just happened to see it in your post.