2020 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

[Hacksaw]

Historical MVC tournament seed and finish based on wins through 15 games:

[Hacksaw]

Seed possibilities as of this morning: Bradley 1-6, Drake 2-8, Evansville 9-10, Illinois St 9-10, Indiana St 1-8, Loyola 1-6, Missouri St 4-8, UNI 1-5, SIU 1-7, Valpo 3-8

Seed possibilities after Drake-ISUr game: Bradley 1-5, Drake 5-8, Evansville 10, Illinois St 9, Indiana St 1-8, Loyola 1-5, Missouri St 4-8, UNI 1-5, SIU 1-6, Valpo 3-8

Seed eliminations so far today: Bradley 6, Drake 2-4, Evansville 9, Illinois St 10, Loyola 6, SIU 7

[chitown fanatic]

Seed possibilities as of this morning: Bradley 1-6, Drake 2-8, Evansville 9-10, Illinois St 9-10, Indiana St 1-8, Loyola 1-6, Missouri St 4-8, UNI 1-5, SIU 1-7, Valpo 3-8

Seed possibilities after Drake-ISUr game: Bradley 1-5, Drake 5-8, Evansville 10, Illinois St 9, Indiana St 1-8, Loyola 1-5, Missouri St 4-8, UNI 1-5, SIU 1-6, Valpo 3-8

Seed eliminations so far today: Bradley 6, Drake 2-4, Evansville 9, Illinois St 10, Loyola 6, SIU 7

Ive been trying to see how Valpo could make the 3 in ANY scenario. How? Their net couldnt be higher than Bradley even if Bradley lost out, could it?

[Khan4Cats]

Seed possibilities as of this morning: Bradley 1-6, Drake 2-8, Evansville 9-10, Illinois St 9-10, Indiana St 1-8, Loyola 1-6, Missouri St 4-8, UNI 1-5, SIU 1-7, Valpo 3-8

Seed possibilities after Drake-ISUr game: Bradley 1-5, Drake 5-8, Evansville 10, Illinois St 9, Indiana St 1-8, Loyola 1-5, Missouri St 4-8, UNI 1-5, SIU 1-6, Valpo 3-8

Seed eliminations so far today: Bradley 6, Drake 2-4, Evansville 9, Illinois St 10, Loyola 6, SIU 7

Ive been trying to see how Valpo could make the 3 in ANY scenario. How? Their net couldnt be higher than Bradley even if Bradley lost out, could it?

6 way tie?

[chitown fanatic]

no because mo st and siu play each other last game...I think his stat is wrong for valpo. Valpo at 137 cant catch BU no matter what they do. 4 should be best seed for them I believe

[chitown fanatic]

6 way tie not possible... Valpo plays MSU wednesday

[Hacksaw]

Here's what the model says at the moment:


Also, for Valpo to end at the 3-seed, it looks to me like the scenarios all include a 4-way tie (Bradley, Indiana St, Southern Illinois, and Valpo) or a 5-way tie (add in Drake) at 10 wins a piece where the mini round robin tiebreakers eliminate Indiana State, Southern Illinois, (and Drake), as well as Valpo's NET ranking manages to climb ahead of Bradley's to win the final tiebreaker. There is a 35 position gap (102 to 137) before incorporating the outcome of today's (Saturday's) game and for the tiebreaker to come into play Valpo wins the next two (vs MSU and at InSt) and Bradley loses the next two (at IlSt and vs Loyola). This may be quite rare, but it's not totally improbable to believe the Valpo's NET may pass Bradley's in that scenario.

[BCPanther]

The UNI-SIU game tomorrow is crazy from a scenario perspective.

If SIU were to pull the (pretty significant) upset, we've got chaos at the top. UNI holds serve and it pretty much sets the top of the standings.

I love league play.

[uniguy]

Any chance we can see the unweighted scenario too Hacksaw? I know they’re probably less accurate, but I love seeing all the possibilities.

Thanks for doing this!

[Hacksaw]

Any chance we can see the unweighted scenario too Hacksaw? I know they’re probably less accurate, but I love seeing all the possibilities.

Thanks for doing this!

No problem. I should've provided this at the same time as the weighted scenarios anyway: