My take is going to be rather long but I get to the Mo Valley at the end.
Big10 is exclusively AAU schools (elite educational institutions) the only exception is Nebraska and they were a AAU school when they joined Big10 but got booted out. Texas is a AAU school but Oklahoma is not. Kansas and Iowa State are AAU schools.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associati ... iversities If Big10 can get Texas they likely bring Kansas along for the ride. TAMU doesn't want Texas in the SEC and will cry foul very loud. Oklahoma State might go to OK legislature to block OU leaving. Now to what more likely happens.
Texas and OU buy out their Big12 obligations somewhere near $70-75M each and join the SEC. SEC tells TAMU to suck it up and be big boys but they will still cry. Big10 can go many ways but Kansas and Iowa State really don't bring that much to the Big10 other than KU hoops. Really out of the box they take Kansas and look at Pitt (AAU) or even Virginia (AAU) - they have poached the ACC before with Maryland. Colorado of Pac12 (AAU) could be a poach target as well but Big10 and PAC12 seem to be relatively friendly. The outer space look is they cross border and look to add the Univ of Toronto (AAU). Buffalo surprisingly to me is a AAU accredited as well so even a Buffalo & Toronto combo (extremely unlikely but these are crazy times). Let's just go simple and say the Big10 adds Kansas and Iowa State only due to the AAU elite status.
None of Baylor, K-State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech or WVU are AAU affiliated. Thus Big12 down to 6 schools - they raid American and gobble up TV markets with Houston, SMU (Dallas), Memphis and Cincinnati so that's 10 and add lesser teams but sizable TV / recruiting markets with Tulsa and Tulane to get to 12. UCF and USF jump to ACC to get them to 16 football schools (with ND as a non football member). Now the Pac12 is looking around and has no choices as like the Big10 they are rather snobbish about the AAU membership with the only non members being ASU, Org State and Wash State. So they stand pat. Big12 not as hung up on the academic side of things is still looking for more teams. Then the Mt West raid starts and in steps Boise State, Colorado State, UNLV and San Diego State.
Net thus far:
ACC +2 (UCF & USF) = 16
Big10 +2 (Iowa State & Kansas) = 16
SEC +2 (Oklahoma & Texas) = 16
Big12 -4 (all above) then add 10 (Boise State, Cincy, Colorado State, Houston, Memphis, UNLV, San Diego State, SMU, Tulane & Tulsa) = 16
Pac12 - N/A
Mt West (-4) Boise State, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State) - they will scrambling to fill slots such NM State, and Dakotas but I am not interested much about them.
American (-8) (Cincy, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF & USF) what is left only East Carolina, (Navy Football), Temple and Wichita State (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA)
Not sure where ECU turns likely the CUSA or SunBelt, Navy goes Independent, Temple maybe can get into Big East and drop football or go to CUSA but Wichita our old friends still left out - choices are crawl back to the Mo Valley or CUSA - are they stuck up enough to try independent? I say no and the MVC takes them back with Murray State to get the MVC to 12.