MVC Games Week 11

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Re: MVC Games Week 11

Postby goramblers2011 » January 21st, 2022, 8:22 pm

RacerJoeD wrote:Predictive metrics like NET reward you for playing well. That means playing well in losses matters. And playing poorly costs you even in a win.


Yes, this was evidenced by Loyola moving down in NET after the OT wins vs Bradley and Valpo. But then moving up in NET after blowing out a bad Evansville team (because Loyola was predicted to win by 15ish but won by 30ish so, from a metrics perspective, that was an 'efficient' win).

But agreed that the lack of Q1 opportunities really hurts.
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Re: MVC Games Week 11

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Re: MVC Games Week 11

Postby RacerJoeD » January 21st, 2022, 9:36 pm

It certainly will limit how high you can go
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Re: MVC Games Week 11

Postby Bearvision » January 22nd, 2022, 3:30 pm

BEARZ77 wrote:
Bearvision wrote:In the above scenario, Loyola would be a 6-seed.


Exactly, you want a picture of how this works consider:
Loyola 13-2 , #19 NET
Marquette 13-6 # 33 NET

Seems obvious right, but now consider Marquette has 5 Q1 wins, Loyola 1 Q1 win .
Loyola has no way to get 5 Q1 wins by seasons end , Marquette will probably have a chance for another 5 or 6. If Loyola goes 15-3 in the Valley then loses a game in STL , they'll be something like 24-6, but with maybe 2 Q-1 wins. Marquette could split their last 11 games or so, end up say 20-12, with 7 Q1 wins. They both probably would be in the 30's NET, but it wouldn't be close for who got the at large


The person I responded to said win out. That would mean undefeated in conference and several additional nice wins (at least two over Missouri State).

If they go unbeaten in MVC, then lose in the title game, they’re a 6-seed.
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Re: MVC Games Week 11

Postby Action10 » January 22nd, 2022, 4:01 pm

Bearvision wrote:
BEARZ77 wrote:Exactly, you want a picture of how this works consider:
Loyola 13-2 , #19 NET
Marquette 13-6 # 33 NET

Seems obvious right, but now consider Marquette has 5 Q1 wins, Loyola 1 Q1 win .
Loyola has no way to get 5 Q1 wins by seasons end , Marquette will probably have a chance for another 5 or 6. If Loyola goes 15-3 in the Valley then loses a game in STL , they'll be something like 24-6, but with maybe 2 Q-1 wins. Marquette could split their last 11 games or so, end up say 20-12, with 7 Q1 wins. They both probably would be in the 30's NET, but it wouldn't be close for who got the at large


The person I responded to said win out. That would mean undefeated in conference and several additional nice wins (at least two over Missouri State).

If they go unbeaten in MVC, then lose in the title game, they’re a 6-seed.

Even winning out, I personally don't see it. 2017 Wichita State is the perfect example... They went into Selection Sunday at 30-4 overall and 17-1 in the MVC. Only loss was on the road against the team they shared the league championship with. They won Arch Madness, including a blowout win on Sunday on CBS. Also had non-conference wins over Tulsa (home), LSU (neutral site), St. Louis (home), Colorado State (road), and Oklahoma (neutral site). Played competitive games on a neutral site with #10 Louisville (10 point loss) and #24 Michigan State (5 point loss) also. That team got a 10 seed.
I don't see much difference in that resume and the one that Loyola would have by winning out until Sunday in St. Louis. Wichita State, at that time, had the same (or more) name value from deep tournament runs as Loyola has now.
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Re: MVC Games Week 11

Postby ValleyFAN » January 22nd, 2022, 4:37 pm

We’ll Missouri State just took Loyola to school in Chicago and Mosley went for 40
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Re: MVC Games Week 11

Postby Kyle_Saluki_17 » January 22nd, 2022, 4:43 pm

ValleyFAN wrote:We’ll Missouri State just took Loyola to school in Chicago and Mosley went for 40

Barring any dramatic changes, I don’t see how any player can compete for POY with him. It is interesting though that Prim may not be a first teamer…. Still good but I feel like he did more last year.
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Re: MVC Games Week 11

Postby goramblers2011 » January 22nd, 2022, 5:22 pm

Kyle_Saluki_17 wrote:
ValleyFAN wrote:We’ll Missouri State just took Loyola to school in Chicago and Mosley went for 40

Barring any dramatic changes, I don’t see how any player can compete for POY with him. It is interesting though that Prim may not be a first teamer…. Still good but I feel like he did more last year.


He is unreal. One of the more dynamic scorers the Valley has ever seen. He basically scored at will today, especially once Lucas Williamson got in foul trouble. Hand him the Larry Bird trophy now.

Bears are a hell of an offensive team. Will be interesting to see how the Ramblers respond.
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Re: MVC Games Week 11

Postby Campbellproud » January 22nd, 2022, 5:42 pm

My guess is that they will lose at least three. All five of their wins are against teams in the bottom half of the league. All five of those teams have losing conference records. What’s left for them: 13 games, 8 of which are against teams in the upper half of the conference. And four of those games are away games. Several of them are on short rest.

I am skeptical that they can run that gauntlet and get by with less than three losses in those 13 games. This weekend’s game against Mo State will be a good measuring stick for them. If they lose, it probably portends further losses to come because they will be playing similar competition here on out.[/quote]

Looks like Loyola will be fighting like everyone else down the stretch.
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Re: MVC Games Week 11

Postby MSUDuo » January 22nd, 2022, 5:56 pm

Kyle_Saluki_17 wrote:
ValleyFAN wrote:We’ll Missouri State just took Loyola to school in Chicago and Mosley went for 40

Barring any dramatic changes, I don’t see how any player can compete for POY with him. It is interesting though that Prim may not be a first teamer…. Still good but I feel like he did more last year.


Prim will have his chances to average a double-double for the conference season. That'll be hard to leave off the 1st team, especially if it helps the Bears to a 1st/2nd finish
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Re: MVC Games Week 11

Postby Salukimadness86 » January 22nd, 2022, 6:00 pm

ValleyFAN wrote:We’ll Missouri State just took Loyola to school in Chicago and Mosley went for 40


Great win for MSU on the road, but not for the Valley as a whole as this will knock Loyola out of the top 25.
Mosley is the real deal, and I would not be surprised to see a.rematch in the MVC Tourney Championship. The conference needs two teams in the dance.
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