I'm not a CU fan, but I think Doug is back for his Sr. year. Not 50-50. Probably not even 90-10.
I saw Bird play, and Doug doesn't strike me as that type of player. I could be wrong. Doug's game may not translate to the NBA as well as some other players who might not be putting up Doug's numbers in college.
Doug appears to be a good player without a good position in the NBA. He's kind of a tweener. Not quick enough to play the 3, and not big enough or strong enough to play the 4. Maybe his uncany shooting ability, his ability to stretch a defense, and his rebounding instincts might carry him past what would appear to be some limitations in the NBA, but is an NBA team going to risk a first-round pick on that?
I think Doug would be a comfortable second round pick this year, but it would be a crap shoot whether he would go to the first round. In that situation, I think Doug finishes school. It's not like he's from the inner city and has a poverty-ridden Mama he wants to take care of.