Play Angry wrote:It's a shame, but ISUb's odds at an at-large are slim to none.
They will still only have 1 win against the RPI Top 100 (and zero against the Top 50) if they win out until Sunday in St. Louis. Their RPI would be around 40, but teams with better resumes have been excluded in droves (many without even serious consideration) over the last decade. Southern Miss last year (RPI of 27, 6 top 100 wins), Missouri State in 2011 (swept second place Wichita State, who was also in the top 50), Wichita State in 2011, and the list goes on....and on...and on. No team with just 1 top 100 victory has ever received an at-large bid to the tournament, and it's not about to start with Indiana State.
Two things really screwed ISUb this season. First, Notre Dame sucks and that robbed them of what was supposed to be a resume defining victory. The Irish were meh before Jerian Grant left and have been just plain bad after. Second, losing to Tulsa in Alaska saddled the Sycamores with a second D2 opponent (the committee has frowned on having more than one of these in the past) and cost them the chance to play Harvard, a borderline Top 50 team. The opportunity cost from the choke against the Golden Hurricane was huge.
I am pulling hard for the Trees because it gives WSU the opportunity to load up on Top 50 wins and beef up our resume. They will not, however, be receiving an at-large bid.
ISUb's only real hope at this point is winning St. Louis.
You're probably right, and everything you say makes sense. The numbers aren't there, and it's true, that loss to Tulsa in Alaska was a killer (as was Iowa pulling out of the Alaska Shootout late, cost a lot of teams a quality RPI game they were planning on at least a chance at).
The only thing is, they have to find 68 teams somewhere, and this year especially (at least right now) the candidates are very underwhelming. Seeing teams like Providence, Georgetown, Tennessee, Stanford in the field right now...none of them would've been even very close last year. The committee also did take Middle Tennessee last year with one top 100 win (though that was a top 50 win, plus their non-conference schedule was exceptionally high), there's a slight chance this year they could get in like a Southern Miss-type like you mentioned last year.
